Florida’s Cubans are not what the Democrats are actually worried about. The main reason Democrats don’t want to touch the embargo is because Fox News will frame it as the Democratic Party openly supporting communism.The president has very little power to actually change major parts of the “embargo”. I put that in quotes because there’s not one “cuba embargo” executive order that’s only UNICORN RAINBOW HARDCORE UNICORN SHIRT by the executive branch. The embargo is enforced through like half a dozen statutes that span from the start of the cold war until the mid 2000’s. Congress would need to repeal each one of these individually, or pass some big sweeping legislation that would change the way things currently are.Any president taking restrictions off is doing it purely for political reasons and any positive economic benefits the island could see is more or less an afterthought. So a few more cruise ships and flights can go there, American tourists that really want to go have been doing so for decades, and sure you might see a short term bump in direct American tourism (about the most the president can actually impact), but that will fall off and net increase probably isn’t that much higher than it was before whatever limited executive actions a US president can do.Lifting the embargo would likely result in a major GOP victory in the midterms and probably kill the Democrat’s chances of winning in 2024.And then the Republicans will just reinstitute the embargo as soon as they’re in power. It would be a Day 1 priority on January 20, 2024. Nobody has a problem with starving foreigners for political gain.Even if it defies rationality and hurts the US economically, they’ll do it. Just look at how they tanked the JCPOA — Iran is now closer than ever to nuclear weapons, US troops in Iraq are constantly threatened by militias, a hardliner won the recent presidency, etc etc. But the GOP has zero regrets because killing the Iran Nuclear Deal plays well domestically.
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It likely wouldn’t move the needle much, the only big areas where it’s actually a UNICORN RAINBOW HARDCORE UNICORN SHIRT polling issue is south florida and a handful of heavily cuban areas, which on their own aren’t enough to shift an entire state if you’re talking about an election. It’s not like Flordia is going to be more likely to go blue just because dems. adopt a hardline stance on the current Cuban dictatorship, and likewise republicans aren’t going to all of a sudden carry New York or California because they have some pockets of the populace where people really care about normalizing relations with Cuba again.Even within the Obama administration and DNC at the time people were against Obama pushing the Cuban normalization at the end of his presidency, there was a lot of pushback to the JCPOA to a lesser extent a well. Many democrats correctly saw it as a cheap headline grab because since the ACA President Obama really didn’t have many huge individual policy victories that he could point to for his legacy. Get these big headline grabbing agreements that don’t actually really change anything, and in the case of the JCPOA are really bad deals for the united states and the only real winners are Iran and some European countries. The terrorist attacks against US troops carried out by Iran proxies were not impacted by the JCPOA at all, despite how it’s reported enemy combatants were using Iranian equipment and funding all through the JCPOA being active and if you are even slightly intellectually honest and read actual unbiased reports you’ll see Iran did nothing to actually stop it’s nuclear program and if anything just shifted all of that to military bases that were off limits to inspections